He has put together a solid career, posting a 193-114 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.208 WHiP over his 2538.2 innings . St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright reaches 2,000 career Your existing password has not been changed. Even having covered the progress of 17 mid- and late-career players in these two installments, there are a handful who have posted JAWS gains that would fit on the leaderboards and about whom people have questions regarding their Hall progress. Enter your email below and we'll send you another email. Max Scherzer, already on the Cooperstown fast track before he was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, continued his march towards inner-circle status by authoring a dominant post-acquisition stretch for his new team (7-0 with a 1.98 in 11 starts for the Dodgers, who won each of his outings) on par with Doyle Alexander in 1987, Randy Johnson in 1998 and CC Sabathia in 2008. Wainwright went 41-28 with a 4.58 ERA (an ERA+ of 90, or 10 percent below league average) from 2016 through 2019. Because he didnt debut until about five weeks before his 26th birthday, hes short in the two traditional stat categories, wins (77) and strikeouts (1,505), that tend to matter to voters, but as Ive argued, particularly if he can nab a third Cy Young, his will be something of a Koufaxian candidacy, where his career totals will matter less than the peak dominance. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. However, the future Cardinals Hall of Famer is coming off a 2022 season in which he lost velocity, suffered a decline in swing . Evaluating Hall of Fame Odds for 10 Active Major League Pitchers - Donuts pre-2008 adjustment) | 39.5 Peak fWAR | 48.8 fJAWS, +0.3 fJAWS). Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. by Handedness, Seven Pitchers (and Some More Position Players) Who Have Most Helped Their Hall of Fame Cases in 2021. His 2011 season, in which he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and led the league in a slew of categories wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, adjusted ERA, and hits allowed per nine innings earned him a distinction that hadnt been accomplished since Roger Clemens in 1986. Wainwright is a Hall of Fame person, and a very good pitcher. Adam Wainwright is not a Hall of Famer yet. Im going to disregard them for now, though all five should (and all but Sabathia probably will) make it eventually. Will this happen? Adam Wainwright (44.0 career | 35.5 Peak | 39.8 JAWS, +2.1 JAWS). At 41-years-old, Adam Wainwright's statistics suggest no signs of slowing down. Hell need more to get his name in the HOF conversation, namely multiple Cy Young award victories and a pivotal role in a Boston World Series championship. What a career Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina have shared together! 2nd stage: Everything is still on track. Enter your email address to get a new one. Your favorite teams, topics, and players all on your favorite mobile devices. Even if he retired now, Verlander has likely done enough to ensure a plaque in Cooperstown. Outside of Clayton Kershaw, he may be the most dominant pitcher in the game right now; FanGraphs credits Scherzer with more WAR than any non-Kershaw pitcher (25.9) since 2013. It just was not the type of career that was worthy of the Hall of Fame. ago. Even 250 wins is a rare accomplishment at this point. All WAR (and WPA) figures here refer to the Baseball Reference version, unless otherwise indicated. And while deGromcontinued to blast 100-mph fastball after 100-mph fastball past hitterseven while missing turns here and there due to what were believed (by the Mets, at least) to be minor and disconnected injuries, he finally landed on the IL in early July with forearm inflammation. Interestingly enough, he missed the entire 2011 season for the world champion St. Louis Cardinals, but he did play an integral role as a closer in the 2006 playoffs, throwing 9.2 scoreless innings in the playoffs. Hes even seen somewhat of a career resurgence after struggling from 2014-2015, he rebounded to lead the AL in strikeouts in 16. . But the Cardinals and the pitcher Cardinals changed the schedule for his first start; Flaherty threw on the backfields instead. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright joins Scott Braun, Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and AJ Pierzynski to talk about his final season and the legacy he's left behind. Were not concerned. Keep your fingers crossed, St. Louis fans.. The secret to Adam Wainwright's success? A curveball like none other If he can maintain this kind of dominance for a few more years, hell get to Cooperstown. Laurie Skrivan, St, Louis Post-Dispatch Here's a look at some other top Cardinals not in the Hall of Fame. The starting pitcher, who will enter his 19th season with the Cards, was drafted by the Atlanta Braves. Wainwright is absolutely not going to make it to Cooperstown, and the numbers say he shouldn't, but you can squint and you can cherry-pick statistics to make an argument for Wainwright if you enter with an agenda. Next, select your favourite teams and leagues and well show you their latest news and scores in the My Favourites section of the home page. While a Cy Young Award does not guarantee entry, it certainly helps. Rolen, a member of the Cardinals Hall of Fame, was welcomed to the 'family' of Hall of Famers during an event and press conference Feb. 28, 2023 in Cooperstown, N.Y. While he has never won a Cy Young Award, he was in the top 3 on four occasions. Bumgarner has thrown 36 career innings in the World Series and allowed one earned run. On Saturday, June 11, 25,000 fans, ages 16 and older, will take home one of their replica . Even if he does that, hes well short of the JAWS standard or even the 55.7 career WAR of David Ortiz, plus he has the stigma of his 2013 PED suspension to overcome. Both legends are heading off into the sunset, their final stop before they end up in Cooperstown in just a few short years. Guerrero was seen walking toward the clubhouse with an athletic trainer in the second inning and was replaced defensively by Rainer Nunez to start the third. Among the sixty-five (again, the number of Hall of Fame starting pitchers) greatest starting pitchers in history, five are either currently active or retired but not yet Hall eligibleJustin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and CC Sabathia. Adam Wainwright has a big decision to make this offseason. Actually, it's two starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright. But is it a Hall of Fame caliber career? He missed large chunks of his playing career due to injuries, and while this has not always been a deal-breaker for Cooperstown, Wainwrights perfectly fine peak was hardly that of go-to example Sandy Koufax. He threw two no-hitters in the same season and tied the major league record with 20 strikeouts in a nine-inning game. Among those who are retired and eligible for Cooperstown, the 65th greatest starter of all-time is actually a pretty sufficiently big nameDwight Gooden. Even though three different physical problems were cited to explain Wainwrights plummeting velocity and ineffective pitching? It was almost a storybook season for the St. Louis Cardinals as club legends Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, and Yadier Molina were reunited and looked primed for a deep postseason run. Gibson, who died last October, finished with 3,117. Jansens 30 saves have pushed him to 14th on the all-time list, five away from the next rung and 26 away from cracking the top 10. Hes pitched for five teams in two different leagues, which is unusual for a pitcher with such a successful resume. Adam Wainwright in 2021 His lifetime ERA is 3.35 and has dropped nearly a tenth of a point over the last two seasons. The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. He just turned 30 on August 7, and hes already fifth in JAWS and third in peak among center fielders, but this has been largely a lost year due to a right calf strain thats already required the longest recovery time in at least six years. Ive lost track. Hes still going strong, as hes tops in the NL in wins (8) in 2017. Drew. Its early, its the process, hell be ready to go when its time to go. He has a $217 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, and to make the Hall of Fame, he may need another Cy Young award and a dominant performance in a World Series championship. Information from The Associated Press was used in this report. Adam Wainwright on Baseball Reference.. Justin Verlander has pulled off one of the rare accomplishments for a pitcher winning a league MVP award. Chapman notched his 300th save on August 26, but hes had an unimpressive season, walking 16.2% of hitters en route to a 3.68 ERA and 4.16, all career worsts. Ten Position Players Who Have Most Helped Their Hall of Fame Cases in When he calls it a career, Wainwright won't be a serious contender for baseball's Hall of Fame, unlike Molina. He was merely a good pitcher on the Detroit Tigers, vastly overshadowed by teammate Justin Verlander. Adam Wainwright will make history as he will become the seventh pitcher in St. Louis Cardinals history to start a game after his 41st birthday. I am a big fan, not as a universal absolute but as a general guideline, of the Jay Jaffe JAWS system, a thing I have mentioned repeatedly in my writing, though I also prefer to use a hybrid model which incorporates a players career performance and his seven best individual seasons (his peak) as measured not only by Baseball Reference but by FanGraphs (in most non-catcher cases, over the course of a career, this doesnt make a huge difference, but in the most discussed cases, the margins are so thin that I am happy to look at as much data as possible). An Alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula. Theres a good chance no pitcher will again crack the 300-win plateau, a mark that has been achieved 24 times throughout the sports history. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright joins Scott Braun, Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and AJ Pierzynski to talk about his final season and the legacy he's. This is the first time since 2010 that all three are in . Adam Wainwright has the second-most WAR of any Cardinals pitcher all-time (44.5). Theyll defer. His induction was most likely heavily influenced by his passing, but I think sets the bar for what a pitcher needs to have accomplished in recent years. This is a veteran, and he knows what he needs to do. Queried about his Cooperstown credentials during the Cardinals' visit to Citi Field last month, Wainwright grinned while seemingly acknowledging his counting numbers he has 184 wins and 2,004. Privacy Policy All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. It is possible that he ends up as one of those players who hangs around the ballot for his decade of eligibility, getting a boost because of his time in St. Loius, but the only way he ends up in Cooperstown will be with a ticket. 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But, while neither was young, per se, by baseball standards (it was deGroms age-30 season and Scherzers age-33), there is a big leap to get to Adam Wainwrights age-40 season which looms ahead. Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C. Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis. If he misses the first week or so, no big deal. They cited various ailments that impacted Wainos performance. In fairness, the Cardinals are correct in their initial thinking. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. He was hit hard four balls hit off him registered exit velocities higher than 104 mph, including a 112.1 mph solo moonshot of a homer off the bat of Jos Abreu. Wainwright did not factor into the decision, allowing five runs on four hits in four innings. After slaying the October beast that had haunted him for so many years, Kershaw pitched reasonably well through the first three months of the season, posting a 3.39 ERA and 2.98 FIP the latter his lowest mark since 2016 in 106.1 innings. Pujols, Wainwright and Molina were each given an introduction and trotted out to the diamond to be greeted by 16 Cardinals Hall of Famers. In the five innings Wainwright yielded eight hits and four earned runs for a 7.20 ERA. Adam Wainwright was glad to see Jason Isringhausen enter the Cardinals Hall of Fame: "He had a profound impact on my career and helped me dramatically." We didn't recognize that password reset code. However, per his stats, it would not be surprising if he is inducted in his first year of eligibility. Drew move to Atlanta. As for R-JAWS, hes entered the top 20, but as he approaches both his 34th birthday and free agency, the question of how many more years hell be trusted to handle the ninth inning looms. Gibson got his 2,000th strikeout when Pittsburghs Roberto Clemente was called out on July 13, 1969. He went from having a 3.8 WAR in 2021 to 2.8 WAR last year. I think Hall of Fame credentials might change a bit, Wainwright said. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. The good news is that even with a modest 2.6 WAR this year, hes in his seventh-best season and can make tracks towards the third base peak standard (43.1 WAR). When it comes down to it, Sabathia may find himself in a logjam of other similar pitchers, and if he does get in, it may take him some time. St. Louis Cardinals: Will Adam Wainwright get a retirement tour? Were not sure if hell be ready by Opening Day, but at this point our priority is to take care of this now so we can have him available for virtually the entire season. Adam Wainwright (44.0 career | 35.5 Peak | 39.8 JAWS, +2.1 JAWS). Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer just had seasons that good in 2018. Between that, his three Cy Youngs, and eight All-Star appearances, hes probably punched his ticket even before getting to 200 wins (hes at 187). All of the starters have a JAWS of at least 42.0; roughly speaking, thats the equivalent of seven six-win seasons, a point at which I start to take mid-career pitchers seriously. Focusing on what hes better at: Scherzer is just 19 strikeouts away from 3,000 and should reach the milestone this month, surpassing the likes of Juan Marichal, Roy Halladay, and Bob Feller on the JAWS leaderboard. Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; hes going to be 36 in a few months and hes logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). As if on schedule, we have our first spring-training round of Is Anything Wrong? with the pitcher. He had a 4.99 ERA in his last 11 starts in 2022 including a 7.22 ERA in his final six starts. Jim Bowden (The Athletic) was at Cardinal camp earlier this week and asked president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about Flahertys status. DUNEDIN., Fla. Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left the spring training game against Tampa Bay with right knee discomfort. During the 2022 regular season, 'Waino' finished with a record of 11-12 and 3.71 ERA in 191.2 innings, while also racking up 143 strikeouts. Cy Young awards, no-hitters, and ERA titles may be better methods for evaluating the 21st century pitcher than the sheer outdated statistic of wins.. {* backButton *} Has Adam Wainwright done enough to deserve a place in the Hall of Fame? Yadier Molina's Hall of Fame case is perplexing, but here's why the He went 17-7 with 174 strikeouts and a 3.05 ERA in 32 starts spanning 206 1/3 innings the third-highest total in the majors. Will the games most enigmatic Hall of Fame candidate, a pending free agent this winter, stick around to get it? Adam Wainwright, is probably not a Hall of Famer and his 36.7 JAWS likely shouldn't be used as the new . (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) Adam Wainwright was one of many players lucky enough to have shared a clubhouse with Scott Rolen, the newest member of the Baseball Hall of Fame.. His contract with Washington will keep him in a uniform through 2021, and by then, he should have a strong case. On Wednesday, I took a swing at a question often asked of me: Which players have helped their Hall of Fame cases the most this year? He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). Opinion | Is Wainright a hall of famer? | ksdk.com While I dont think the statistical mistake that was inducting Rick Ferrell means that we should induct Mickey Tettleton, in my perfect world we would have sixteen Hall of Famers at the catcher position, though the ones who are in would be different (for instance, among the currently eligible, Gene Tenace would be there), and we would go from there. Just to be clear, its not an injury deal; its about him not syncing his body up correctly, and he didnt feel like he was getting the leg drive he typically gets, Cardinals manager Oli Marmol said. Despite dealing with shoulder soreness and some rough stretches, Greinke the active leader in JAWS has pitched an AL-high 159.2 innings, though he will probably get overtaken after landing on the COVID-19 IL on Tuesday. MLB starting pitcher who won a World Series Championship with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006 and was a member of the Cardinals . The good news is that Sale is missing bats and taking names, offering hope that the 32-year-old lefty can resume a quest for Cooperstown that was beginning to come into focus before he was injured. Albert Pujols is, barring something unforseen, going to easily sail into the National Baseball Hall of FameI always feel the need to add a caveat since uncodified steroid accusations have already kept one of the few modern hitters unreservedly superior to Pujols out of the Hall of Fame, though seeing David Ortiz make it does give me hope that Albert Pujols being a nice guy that everyone in baseball media seems to like would provide sufficient cushion to whatever random conjecture somebody wants to throw out into the discourse. 132-72, 3.34 ERA, 2,005 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. While Drew was a fine player throughout his career, he would only spend the 2004 season with the Braves. Your email address will not be published. (And hes been getting his work in, at least for the most part.) Even in the he falls short but not short enough to not make it hypothetical, the easiest path is likely for Adam Wainwright to post 8.1 WAR under both methods. . We always prefer to go the surgery route as the last possible resort. Seconds later, told his numbers stack up well to wild card-era pitchers who are either already enshrined or have solid Hall of Fame cases, the famously good-natured Wainwright a night removed from saying he struck out Jeff McNeil looking to leave the bases loaded because I like nostalgia and he wanted to give Mets fans what they want grinned again. How much more does Wainwright need to do to make the Hall of Fame in Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. Press release: Cardinals announce 2022 promotions schedule - MLB.com Still, Hernandez has quite a resume over the last decade hes been named to six All-Star teams, won 156 games for a perennially-losing franchise that hasnt sniffed the postseason, and hes won a Cy Young award to go with multiple ERA titles. And right now, he simply isnt there. Adam Wainwright is one of the more curious pitchers in baseball, and a recent thread raised a couple questions to me. Wainwright had won nine of 10 decisions coming in. Always ranking QBs. Were just giving him a little extra time in between appearances to rebound from his first time out. I try to stay out of it as much as possible.. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Winnowing the 180/2,000/3.40/350/2,300 field down to just wild card-era pitchers makes for an even more exclusive group: Wainwright, Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Clemens plus Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Roy Halladay and Pedro Martinez. But what is particularly interesting to examine with regards to Wainwright is that if Wainwright were elected, he would not even be close to the worst starting pitcher in Cooperstown. The two were teammates from 2005-07, and Rolen was out at third base when Wainwright recorded the final out of the 2006 World Series for the St. Louis Cardinals.. It's not the be-all end-all but his baseball reference kind of shows that he really shouldn't make it. The three Cy Young Awards should be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. It's an ex-Chip's Worldand we're just picking up the pieces. He has led the league in strikeouts three times, including a 300-strikeout season in 2018. After posting a 3.84 expected ERA in 2022, that metric jumped to 4.53 last season. Pirates, Cardinals 2022 Opening Day FAQ - MLB.com He was the first pitcher aged 39 or older since Mike Mussina in 2008 to throw at least 200 innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better. Ill assume that FanGraphss weirdly defensive stance against Wainwrights pursuit of bulletin board material has subsided by then. Be the first one to comment on this story. I want to confine my results to the integration era, as, while this whole exercise is based on some level of silliness, I dont think asking Adam Wainwright to win 40 games and pitch 400 innings is particularly fair. Though hes overcome health scares and worked hard to expand his arsenal to become less reliant upon his cutter, Jansen has continued to take Dodgers fans on a rollercoaster this season. Nelson Cruz, right field (42.2 career | 30.1 Peak | 36.1 JAWS, +1.3 JAWS). After the divorce, his mother, Nancy, became a real estate agent and raised the boys on her own. Just want to take care of some minor inflammation after he ramped up his throwing and pitch counts. Or follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link. He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011. After doing some [strength] assessments, its something he can solve. Sure there are. Queried about his Cooperstown credentials during the Cardinals visit to Citi Field last month, Wainwright grinned while seemingly acknowledging his counting numbers he has 184 wins and 2,004 strikeouts are not going to measure up to most of the starting pitchers enshrined in Cooperstown. What injury? Mike Trout, center field (76.2 career | 65.1 Peak | 70.6 JAWS, +0.5 JAWS). 122-66, 3.24 ERA, 1,621 strikeouts, 123 adjusted ERA. Or could it be that a lot of this is happening because Wainwright is 41 years old and headed to his 42nd birthday on Aug. 30? Look at that. Gerrit Cole (117 wins at age 31) and Chris Sale (114 wins at age 32) are the likeliest active pitchers to approach Wainwrights total. As a result, Ive chosen not to include him on this article. Adam Wainwright is the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher since Bob Gibson, and arguably the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher in history other than Bob Gibson. Adam Wainwright Archives - Cooperstown Cred But over the last three seasons, Jack has pitched only 154 innings. The 40-year . Since then, hes made the All-Star team every year, led the league in wins on three occasions, and won a Cy Young award in each league. Adam Wainwright. No ones winning 300 games again, probably, Maybe there will be a couple guys that have a chance Claytons got a chance, Max maybe. But Wainwright proved his solid 2020 wasnt a brief mirage. Price (155 wins) is the only active pitcher within 30 wins of Wainwright, with Cueto (135) and Bumgarner (127) much further behind. May need surgery, but were not close to making any kind of decision on that. Let's take a look at Flaherty. . He was the MVP of the 2014 World Series after two dominant starts and then five scoreless innings off the bench in Game 7, and hes been a key contributor to three championship teams. The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. While these numbers are impressive, they may not be enough to convince voters that Adam Wainwright is a Hall of Famer. 2/4/18 Super Bowl champs. Hes undergone Tommy John surgery, and his career total of 76 wins is underwhelming. Paul Goldschmidt, first base (49.1 career | 40.6 Peak | 44.9 JAWS, +2.2 JAWS). Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Now his current difficulties are being downplayed because the leg/glute tightness, the back spasms, the finger. However, their overall record forced the Cards to play a Wild Card series against Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies. He became a member of the Cardinals when the Atlanta Braves traded him for J.D. Twenty-eight are enshrined in Cooperstown everyone except Wainwright and his fellow active hurlers Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, the latter trio of whom are expected to glide in Cooperstown, as well as Roger Clemens, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Jerry Koosman, Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown and Vida Blue. He surpassed 200 wins in 2019 (hes at 219 now), but with his strikeout rate dipping from 24.5% last year to 17.0% this year, hes still 201 strikeouts away from 3,000 and will probably need two seasons to reach the milestone instead of one. Guerrero is on the Dominican Republic roster for this months World Baseball Classic. He, of course, can retract this, but as he is now in his 40s, Im inclined to believe hes serious. The Hall of Fame case for St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright